So Steve Jobs gets his way and http://www.emi.com becomes the first major label to ditch copy-protection software. Other record labels are expected follow suit. Music fans will get to burn as many tracks as they want and get the added bonus of near-CD quality sound files. Paid music downloads soar. And everyone wins.
Well, yes. Except for the "everyone wins" part.
Apple certainly wins. It sells a lot more iPods. Fans win. But music labels only lose less.
If you’re an amoral fan who has a choice between paying for a pristine, 256kps, copy-protection-free file from iTunes or downloading it for free from your favorite pirate site or friend’s computer, what are you going to do?
You’ll do what 1 billion illegal song downloads a month say you’re going to do. You’re not going to pay.
Sure, some people will pay. I will. Maybe you will, too. Probably more people in the world will pay. But most people won’t.
Which means that the "sea change" in music buying habits that some media outlets are already predicting isn’t going to happen. Or at least, not enough to stem the steady erosion in the music industry’s business.
The sea change has already occurred. Fans realize they don’t need to pay for albums. There’s no going back.
The real sea change will occur when record labels — not Apple — come up with a fundamentally new paradigm for monetizing music. I detailed a few pet ideas in last week’s column, "When Will They Ever Learn?" I may be wrong about my ideas. But I’ll bet you it’s not going to be "pay per download" that rescues the record industry, either.
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This post was written by Michael Stroud on April 3, 2007
