For those of you who missed iHollywood Forum and NXTcomm’s Q&A with Survivor and Apprentice Producer Mark Burnett about the future of digital content delivery, just click on the image to the left to go a page with links to view the video. (About the middle of the page; Quicktime and Windows Media). NXTcomm is the replacement show for the giant Supercomm show, produced by the Telecommunications Industry Association and the U.S. Telecom Association. Burnett will be keynoting NXTcomm08, which is dedicated to the intersection of voice, data and content.

iHollywood Forum will be co-producing Communications Goes Green with NXTcomm on June 19 at the Las Vegas Convention Center. Keynotes include AT&T’s Dorothy Attwood, Senior Vice President for Regulatory Planning & Policy and Chief Privacy Officer; and Verizon’s Kathryn C. Brown, Senior Vice President
Public Policy Development & Corporate Responsibility.

If you’re involved in IPTV, cable or broadcast TV content and infrastructure, and if environmental concerns are important to your business, this is the show for you.

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Two tech bellwethers may provide a glimpse of how digital media will fare in the months ahead.

Cisco helped stocks recover today after CEO John Chambers said he was "even more comfortable" with projections for long-term growth rate. Google fell to 52-week lows, amid continuing fear about flattening ad sales.

It’s hard to generalize about anything in these skittish economic times, but their performance today show’s what’s likely to happen in tech

The "heavy metal" companies are going to do the best (or suffer the least). Digital media companies focused on marketing, advertising or pure content will get hammered.

Why? Because companies will cut their marketing and advertising budgets long before they cut their budgets for the computing and networking investments they need to run their businesses.

Venture capitalists, which at the best of times aren’t fond of content companies, will also move to the comparative reliability of companies that make tangible products.

Consumers can pick up some of the slack in a recession.  If past is precedent, consumers will go to more movies, watch more TV and presumably will spend more time on Facebook and Google as they avoid more expensive recreation.

But digital media can’t survive on more clicks by consumers alone. It needs ad dollars — and hence the concern about Google.

See Also

• Stocks pull off lows on bargain hunting
• Cisco, Ambac Soften Blow to Stocks

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On a day when financial woes caused the Los Angeles Times to fire its editor and the Orange County Register to can its business section, I found myself thinking about Amazon’s Kindle.

The Kindle, you’ll recall, is an ebook that allows you to wirelessly download any of 90,000 books over a 3G cellular network — as well as news and views from the New York Times, Time, the Huffington Post and dozens of other outlets.

It’s essentially a computer that downloads stuff from the Internet, the same type of gadget journalists are always complaining is stealing away their business.

The main difference is form factor and readability. The Kindle is about the size of a paperbook book and uses a technology called electronic ink that gives a reader the sensation of reading words on a page.

It exemplifies the best of both worlds: the accessibility of the Internet; and a comfortable reading experience that no computer or PDA can match.

Admittedly, there are plenty of flaws in the first Kindle: monochrome, inability to surf the Internet, no video and a rather ugly design. But those flaws will surely be addressed in future versions of Kindles — and its soon-to-be numerous competitors.

For newspapers, the implications are huge. Their biggest threat, the Internet, is now their delivery boy. They can reach an infinite audience and they eliminate their huge newsprint costs. They can update stories instantly and add video.

Most importantly, the readability of an ebook (or perhaps better, a connected book) mean that the over-30 set, who could never imagine sipping a latte and watching their computer screen, will feel perfectly at home once they’ve gotten used to the novelty.

And even my kids would surely prefer connected books to booting up their computers or squinting at their PDAs every time they want to read something.

We’re talking about a 10 to 20 year span, I’d think, before connected books replace the printed page. But the writing, as they say, is on the wall.

See Also

• O.C. Register to Drop Its Business Section
• Why Los Angeles Times Can’t Keep an Editor

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In the new world of Web original programming how do we measure success?

As showa like "Goodnight Burbank," MySpace’s "AfterWorld," and "Prom Queen" revive interest in the Webisodic format, media buyers and programmers have to ask themselves what constitutes a hit in this new environment of on-demand and viral video. 

At NewTeeVee, Chris Albrecht pulls some of the latest stats together to show that phenoms like Will Ferrell’s FunnyorDie.com baby landlord sketch pulled down 45 million views, while KateModern claims 2 million. Mike Hudak, who runs Blip.tv tells me that 100,000 views is doing nicely for a series but once viewership hits a million a month you know you have a real hit. The question is not whether a single clip or sketch goes ballistic virally. The point for advertisers is whether the Web can build a media entertainment brand that is worth investing in. Hudak feels this is the case, but it requires a diminished cost structure and real consistency. You are not going to make an online hit work on a TV budget for a good long while, he admits. But if a program like "Goodnight Burbank" or "RocketBoom" can maintain consistency, then they can build an audience. Releasing episodes on a regular basis, keeping the look, feel and format consistent across episodes, are key to success he argues.

Media buyers I ask about these issues have a range of thoughts. Some feel that slapping an ad banner on something that grabs a few million views is probably not so great a deal if the brand can make their own longer form programming and generate an audience that gives them full attention. Others say they like the opportunities these shows offer for deeper product integration. Some hosts weave promotions for the advertiser into their content.

We are in a new world in which the metrics and the content are shifting beneath our feet and both media producers and advertisers are trying to figure out how to make best contact with a fragmenting audience.    

See Also

• FunnyorDie
• Blip.tv

Posted under Michael's Blog

Consolidation in the ad network space is a necessary next step

This has been a harrowing six months in the digitial ad space, with DoubleClick, aQuantive, Tacoda, RightMedia, 24/7, all getting gobbled. With today’s announcement that Yahoo! is buying behavioral targeting network BLueLithium for $300 million, it is clear that for now the big play online is to guarantee reach. Some have argued that the big players like Microsoft, Yahoo and Google are buying up technology in these acquisitions and positioning themselves for a coming day when ad targeting, expecially behavioral targeting, really kicks in. But Yahoo already has a behavioral engine that is highly evolved, and AOL already has Ad.com. For the time being, what these companies are after is reach, being able to create massive audiences that for now attract big brand advertising from TV. In the future this scale will translate into more viable behavioral and other programs. My old friend Denise Garcia, analyst at A.G. Edwards, has an excellent post today on the state of online media that explores some of these issues. Also, Web advertising veteran Jay Sears at ContextWeb gives an extensive analysis of where this points the online ad business generally.

But I think this is about aggregating audiences right now. BlueLithium is one of the largest networks in the U.S. Yahoo, like AOL and Microsoft, need to reach out beyond the traffic they pull into their portals with content. They need to offer their clients campaigns with more direct response applications (i.e. BlueLithium) and with greater targeting capabilities. As major media bring more of their wares online (Hulu.com, MySpaceTV, etc.) they also will need online the kind of mass reach for their promotions they are used to on TV. These deals are designed to give such clients that kind of massive inventory.

But as the Web finally evolves towards more sophisticated targeting, the reach and technology that a BlueLithium or Tacoda bring to the table become more important. Targeting audiences according to their past online behaviors is very effective, but it does not scale well. As you parse audiences into behavioral segments like recent auto content viewers in the 34-45 demo the slice of addressable eyeballs plummets. Only massive reach can render enough scale in these targets to make campaigns worthwhile to media buyers. By 2010 and 2011 perhaps, this will start making a big difference. At that point, portals like AOL and Yahoo, perhaps even Google, will become profiling engines. As people peruse their content, the protals will record their behaviors and then apply those profiles to targeted advertising the companies servie out across the network as users go out onto the general Web. For now, however, the new game is very much like the old game… attracting the masses.   

See Also

• BlueLithium

Posted under Michael's Blog

The NBCu and News Corp. portal unveils a name and a URL

We imagine that the executives at NBCu and News Corp. decided to be a bit playful and "YouTube-sounding" when they came up with the name Hulu for their much-awaited video portal. But we can’t say we are much amused, although we are sure it went through more focus groups than a new brand of soap. The story broke from Mediapost this morning that Hulu.com would be the brand and the address of this home to NBC, Fox and others’ TV fare. The site is inviting users to put their name on the list for an invitation-only beta test in October, which means the site is well behind schedule and will not coincide with the rollout of new fall programming.

When I spoke with NBCu executive George Kliavkoff in the spring about this plan, hyper-distribution seemed to be the key. Hulu has partnered with YouTube, MySpace, MSN and others to boast an unprecendented Web reach of 93%. They believe that advertisers and users prefer quality, well-produced content. Advertisers need environments they can trust and users can only watch so many cats playing pianos and kids skateboarding into walls. The guys at News Corp. and NBC appear confident that dispersing their shows far and wide but keeping the ads bolted to them is the best way to ensure distribution and monetization. Interestingly, they ar elaso engaging in unprecedented coopetition, in that the search engine and categorization of the portal Kliavkoff described to me would let users mash up their networks and brands pretty freely. The biggest innovation in this portal may be the networks’ (well two of them) new willingness to dissolve the only brand walls. The plan that I heard months ago involved letting other media brands into the mix as well.  

Who knows how well this will fly. I can say that there is a great deal of interest and excitement among media buyers. Social media, user-generated media, etc. are tough for traditional buyers to figure out. Sure there is a lot of interest and experimentation going on here. Google just launched its first tests of in-video ads at YouTube. But on the whole, ad buyers need safe and well-lit places with lots of eyeballs in which to plant their massive budgets. Hulu may succeed with the advertisers more effectively and earlier than it succeeds with viewers. 

If it ever gets to Beta, that is.    

Posted under Michael's Blog

The big budget Webisodic “Afterlife” hopes to vindicate a fallen model?

Anyone remember Digital Entertainment Network? TheSpot? Those online reality series from AOL? Well, long after that original model for Webisodic entertainment crashed and burned, MySpace and Electric Farm Entertainment revive it in a big way this week with the $3 million “Afterworld” series. Fully animated and promising 130 episodes before it is done, “Afterworld" is a big bet from News Corp., if not in cash then in reputation. It is splitting the ad revenue with Electric Farm in lieu of licensing fees, reports Mediapost. For its part, Electric Farm is wisely spinning the sci-fi storyline into mobile and game rights. Sony, which helped underwrite the series, is leveraging the concept into a Sci-Fi Channel mini-series.

But a lot of this still rides on MySpace. Exactly how powerful is the social network in circulating content, building buzz and (perhaps most important) maintaining interest in such a long-winded series? The dearth of interest in Webisodics is too often blamed on the limited broadband penetration before 2003 or so. Now that users have the fat pipes and are also accustomed to watching video online, the serialized model for Web shows seems to be worth a second shot, many seem to think. I would argue that the fate of this content model has more to do with distribution and consumption patterns than it does with technology.

There were some very good Web series back in the day Aardman Studio made the Angry Kid shorts and Tim Burton made the Stainboy series. I always like the Mondo “Thugs on Film” episodes myself, and some of their classics are showing up now on iTunes. The problem is that unless the series are in your face, you forget it is there. Interest drops off after a few episodes. They are fun but not so much fun as to compel a user to seek out new chapters. These interesting ideas ended up with small cult followings on AtomFilms, which is nice but not a breakthrough business model. 

The hope is that hyper-distribution over social networks will be part of the cure. If MySpace can keep the interest up over time and keep the brand in front of a growing network of users through their personal pages and blogs then the model may have a chance. I am not one to doubt the possibilities of new entertainment models. But I think that MySpace has more riding on this project than a few million bucks. It will be a measure of the power of the network as a real media distribution and marketing vehicle.

Posted under Michael's Blog

Major media companies are on a buying spree, but are they cost-conscious?

"Do you know any companies we might be interested in?" This questions, or soemthing much like it, has beern posed to me on more than one occasion in recent months by the heads of digital units in large media companies. People are shopping, and the old media companies that once over-invested and then sniffed cynically at digital media are back to the table. Hearst puchased both Kaboodle and UGO in recent months, expanding both their audience into young male miches and their business into shopping directory. CNet has a good overview of recent activity in the space.

But are the big media shoppers themselves well-informed buyers? The article suggests that the NBCU buyout of iVillgae and Conde Nast’s purchase of Reddit have been disappointments. Even the News Corp. big buy-in of MySpace seems a little less promising now that Facebook is in ascendance. Well, that may be taking the point a bit too far. The success of the digital campaign for "The Simpsons Movie," much of which was fueled by innovative uses of MySpace, seems to show where the synergies can happen.

Mark Glaser has a good look at Hearst pursuing a start-up model in re-launching its magazine sites at his MediaShoft blog.

I think old media buying up new media is a good thing. If anything, the new companies help educate the old in the ways of interactivity. The moguls admit that the world is shifting beneath their feet and they need to acquire the audiences that smarter fledglings have amassed. While Web acquiaitions once were a matter of hubris, now they are a matter of humble necessity.

Posted under Michael's Blog

We spend more time on media now than any other Web activity

The Online Publishers Association has been tracking online behavior by activity types for several years now in one of the most interesting but under-reported indexes online at Online-Publishers.org. The monthly chart tracks time spent on e-commerce, search, content and communication (email, messaging, etc.). In what I take as a significant milestone in the evolution of online behavior, the OPA reported yesterday that almost half of our time (47% time share) is now spent online engaging with content. For all of its market share and attention, search actually amounts to only 5% of our time, while commerce is 15% and person-to-person communication consumes 33% of our time.

Perhaps most interesting in these number is how quickly things have changed. In just the last four years, when this Internet Activity Index began, content time share has escalated 37% while commerce declined 5% and communications took the biggest hit, losing 28% of its share of our time spent online. Clearly the rise of broadband and the deeper, higher quality media experience it allows have changed things radically. The very sharp increase in video use is helping to inflate the numbers.

More importantly, we finally are thinking of the Internet as an entertainment medium. When I first started covering the Web in 1996, the lab dweebs at the major media companies dismissed the threat of the Internet because it was a “lean-in” platform, while TV was a “lean-back” experience. We haven’t heard those old buzzwords in recent years, because interactivity and broadband have made this a moot distinction. Sure I am at my desk, and this isn’t as comfortable a way to watch that Heroes episode as the living room. But I am getting the whole thing now, and the size of my 21-inch display three feet from my nose and super sharp A/V from a fat pipe make this experience superior to many TV sets.

Only time will tell how far content consumption will go online and how much entertainment and information will dominate this platform. With entire prime time schedules coming online this fall, and ambitious Web TV operations like Joost and the NBC/News Corp. portal about to fly, we will see the limits of our lean-in attention span in the next year. Stay tuned, Bat fans. It is only beginning to get interesting.   

Posted under Michael's Blog

Disney and Highbeam launch good new content, but who will visit it?

Remember, “build it and they will come?” I have to wonder if we are seeing a resurgence of that discredited approach to dotcom media. Two new and very good digital content features launched this week, but how will people find them? Disney-ABC’s “At the Movies with Ebert & Roeper” site released hundreds of hours and 5,000 clips of archival reviews from Ebert, Roeper, and the late Gene Siskel that any media fan will love. Watching Roger and Martin Scorcese compare notes on air over best films of the 90s is delicious. The new archive is well-indexed, and it is a perfect adjunct to our DVD culture, where the entire library of film is open for our immediate review. But you have to remember to go to the “At the Movies” site to get this trove of goodness. The Disney press release made no mention of how this excellent material would be distributed where people most need it, when they hunt for video rentals. I checked Disney’s other big film property, Movies.com, for some sign of linkage, but I came up empty. We are still at that nascent stage of online video where putting footage online seems to be enough. What we need next is video syndication strategies that plant this kind of great, branded information more closely to the thoroughfares of task-driven traffic.

Likewise, the new and very compelling Newser.com is a fascinating project. It presents aggregated news in a grid of nine main stories, which pop up synopses and images with a mouse-over. It is well-written (by humans), offers about half a dozen main sections to explore, and the option to expand the grid to 24 items. This is like Google News with a good editor and a better interface, and it should be seen. Designed by Michael Wolff (yes, of Vanity Fair and Burnrate fame) and launched by Highbeam Research, I can’t see how this good idea gets traction without a clearer distribution plan than I see here. Which raises an interesting problem. When a new site brings novel and interesting content online, like the new The Politico site, it gets re-distributed by blogs and others. But how do you re-distribute a re-distributor like this news aggregator? Unless it strikes a deal to become an adjunct to a major portal or existing news source, I worry that no one will see a very good content idea.

It is not just a good-content game. It is also a real-estate game. Location, location, location.

Posted under Michael's Blog