Comcast + Time Warner Cable = Bad Idea

Just because you can do something doesn’t mean you should. Analyst Jason Bazinet of Citigroup estimates in a new report that combining Comcast with Time Warner Cable could achieve $1.6 billion in programming savings and could add something like $7.1 billion, or $2.46 a share, to Comcast’s value.  That mega-company would control about 37% of the U.S. cable market — permittable now that rules barring cable companies from controlling more than 30% of the U.S. cable market have been overturned

The analyst’s assumption is that regulators would cast a blind eye to this oligopoly because new TV entrants like AT&T, Verizon, Dish Network and DirecTV redraw the traditional definition of what constitutes the pay TV market. But he’s conveniently forgetting these giants’ move into telephones, Internet and wireless, and their growing ability to dictate the terms of content distribution.

Wall Street might get richer from such a scheme, but consumers would be poorer as rates rise and programming choices fall.

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This post was written by Michael Stroud on September 10, 2009

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Sprint, Clearwire: Winners are Google and Cable Operators

Sprint Nextel and Clearwire’s reported $12 billion joint venture to roll out ultra-fast wireless Internet access would be a significant boost to the cellular aspirations of Comcast, Time Warner Cable and Google.

The Wall Street Journal said the two companies have raised $3.2 billion in outside financing, including $1.05 billion from  Comcast, $550 million from Time Warner Cable, $500 million from Internet giant Google and  $1 billion from Intel. 

Cable companies are fretting at the wireless advantage of AT&T and Verizon, both of which have rolled out IPTV service to millions of customers over the last year. This combination, which reportedly will allow them to brand the service as their own, would allow them to add high-speed wireless to their TV, Internet and telephone options.

For Google, the deal helps cement its position as the dominant search provider in wireless in advance of an expected Google phone over the next 12 months.

Intel, which wil merge its broadband wireless services into Clearwire, gets a new breath of life for its data services, which have been sorely underutilized as subscribers flee its service.

According to the Journal, the new service will ultimately be as much as eight times faster than existing coverage.

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This post was written by Michael Stroud on May 6, 2008

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